How many sources for a double-pip cost?

Double- and triple-pip costs are what actually pin your mana base. Getting two blues in your first eight cards is a much taller ask than getting one blue in eight, and the numbers below explain why.

Why intensive costs are the real problem

Land counts get most of the attention because they are one number and easy to talk about. Colored source counts get less attention because they are harder to think about. But the truth is: your land total decides whether you hit your land drops, and your source-of-each-color total decides whether those lands actually let you cast your spells.

A single-pip cost like asks a lenient question: "did you draw at least one blue source?" A double-pip cost like asks a much stricter one: "did you draw at least two blue sources, and did you have room in your mana development to play both?" That second question grows a lot faster in difficulty than intuition suggests.

Concrete targets: 60-card, on the play, 90% threshold

These are the numbers players ask about most often. The calculator above is pre-set to double-pip; you can move the turn and threshold to see how the required source count shifts.

These are 60-card numbers. In Commander (99 cards) the same probabilities require noticeably more sources because the deck is bigger, which is why heavy-double-pip commanders often stay in one or two colors.

What "sources" means

A source is any card that can produce mana of the color you are checking, on the turn you want to cast the spell. That includes basic lands of the color, dual lands, shock lands, check lands, pain lands, on-color triomes, and mana rocks and dorks that make that color. Tapped lands still count — they just do not count for the turn they enter play.

Two subtleties matter. First, a tapped dual on turn 1 is essentially half a source for the purpose of a turn-2 cast. Second, mana rocks let you double-count a turn: a Signet on turn 2 can act like an extra green source for a turn-3 double-green spell. The calculator does not know about these nuances directly, so err on the side of not counting slow lands or rocks toward the earliest turn goals.

The splashing question

If you are asking whether you can splash a double-pip card, the answer is almost always no, and the calculator will show you why. The source count required for a splash on curve is usually as high as the source count required for a main color, which by definition means the splash is not a splash anymore.

There are exceptions — a delayed double-pip cost, a deck with heavy fixing, a card so powerful it is worth accepting a reliability hit. But the default answer is: promote the splash to a full color, or cut the card.

FAQ

How many sources for a turn-2 double-pip spell?

In a 60-card deck at a 90% reliability threshold on the play, you want roughly 20 to 22 sources for a turn-2 double-pip cost. In a 99-card Commander deck the same threshold pushes you toward 30 sources. Use the calculator to lock in the exact number for your list.

Can I splash a double-pip card?

In most cases no. Double-pip splashes require nearly as much color support as the deck's main color, which usually means the splash is not actually a splash. If you have to run 14-plus sources for a single card, you have promoted that color out of splash territory.

What about triple-pip costs?

Triple-pip is a serious constraint. In a 60-card deck you are typically at 18-plus sources for a turn-4 triple-pip cast. In Commander it pushes you close to 30 sources of that color and toward a monocolor or one-color-dominant build.

Does one extra tapped land count as a source?

Yes for later turns, no for the turn it comes in. If you are checking a turn-2 double-pip cost, count only lands that can produce that color untapped on turn 2. For a turn-4 cast, most tapped duals are fine.