How many colored sources do you need?
Short answer: to cast a single-pip spell on turn 3 in 90% of games on the play, run 22 sources of its color in a 99-card Commander deck, 13 in a 60-card deck and 9 in a 40-card Limited deck. A double pip on turn 3 takes 36, 22 and 14, and a triple pip takes 48, 29 and 19. In a Commander pod, where nobody skips their first draw, that turn-3 single pip needs 20.
Each cell below is the fewest sources of one color that reach the bar: the chance of having drawn at least that many of them, one per pip, among the cards you have seen by that turn. A source is any card that makes the color by then, which is mostly lands. The figures come from the same exact hypergeometric engine as our mana base calculator, which sits below the charts for any case they do not cover.
Every chart is at a 90% bar and comes in two halves, on the play and on the draw. They are one table read twice: on the draw you have seen the cards you would have seen a turn later on the play, so each draw chart is the play chart moved up one row.
99 cards: Commander
99 cards, on the play
The first seat of a two-player game, the only Commander seat that skips a draw. Sources of one color for a 90% bar:
| Turn | One pip | Two pips | Three pips |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27 | 44 | 59 |
| 2 | 24 | 40 | 53 |
| 3 | 22 | 36 | 48 |
| 4 | 20 | 33 | 44 |
| 5 | 18 | 30 | 40 |
| 6 | 17 | 28 | 38 |
| 7 | 16 | 26 | 35 |
99 cards, in a pod
Every seat in a game of three or more players, where nobody skips the first draw:
| Turn | One pip | Two pips | Three pips |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | 40 | 53 |
| 2 | 22 | 36 | 48 |
| 3 | 20 | 33 | 44 |
| 4 | 18 | 30 | 40 |
| 5 | 17 | 28 | 38 |
| 6 | 16 | 26 | 35 |
| 7 | 14 | 24 | 33 |
The single-pip column is the one most decks live in: about 20 sources for a color you need by turn 4, which a two-color 37-land deck can give both of its colors with a handful of duals. The double-pip column is where a mana base stops being a land count and becomes a deckbuilding decision. A turn-3 double pip wants 36 sources on the play and 33 in a pod, a third of the deck in one color, which only the deck's main color can carry. Our double-pip guide works through what to do when a card asks for more than that. A triple pip wants 33 sources even on turn 7 in a pod, so a triple-pip card is a near-mono-color commitment.
Our other Commander guides quote the on-the-play chart. It is the cautious figure, so a mana base built to it holds up in every seat, and if you only play in pods the second chart is the one your games will see.
60 cards: Constructed
60 cards, on the play
| Turn | One pip | Two pips | Three pips |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 27 | 35 |
| 2 | 15 | 24 | 32 |
| 3 | 13 | 22 | 29 |
| 4 | 12 | 20 | 26 |
| 5 | 11 | 18 | 24 |
| 6 | 10 | 17 | 22 |
| 7 | 9 | 15 | 21 |
60 cards, on the draw
| Turn | One pip | Two pips | Three pips |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 24 | 32 |
| 2 | 13 | 22 | 29 |
| 3 | 12 | 20 | 26 |
| 4 | 11 | 18 | 24 |
| 5 | 10 | 17 | 22 |
| 6 | 9 | 15 | 21 |
| 7 | 9 | 14 | 19 |
The turn-1 row is the aggro question. A one-drop on turn 1 wants 16 sources of its color on the play; the 14 that builders often quote reaches 86.1%, a missed one-drop about one game in seven. The aggro mana base guide takes that further, into the turn-2 double pip that 22 lands cannot reach.
40 cards: Limited
40 cards, on the play
| Turn | One pip | Two pips | Three pips |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 18 | 24 |
| 2 | 10 | 16 | 21 |
| 3 | 9 | 14 | 19 |
| 4 | 8 | 13 | 17 |
| 5 | 7 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | 6 | 11 | 15 |
| 7 | 6 | 10 | 14 |
40 cards, on the draw
| Turn | One pip | Two pips | Three pips |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 16 | 21 |
| 2 | 9 | 14 | 19 |
| 3 | 8 | 13 | 17 |
| 4 | 7 | 12 | 16 |
| 5 | 6 | 11 | 15 |
| 6 | 6 | 10 | 14 |
| 7 | 5 | 9 | 13 |
A two-color draft deck with 17 lands splits them around 9 and 8, which meets the single-pip bar for both colors by turn 4 and a double pip for neither. The late rows are the splash question: even a spell you cast on turn 6 wants 6 sources of 40 at this bar. A splash of four sources reaches 77.6% on turn 6 and three reaches 66.8%, which is the reliability a splash gives up to keep the main colors whole.
How the bar moves the number
90% is a bar, not a law. Asking for less costs fewer sources and more games without the color. A 99-card deck checking a turn-4 cast on the play:
| Bar | One pip | Two pips | Three pips |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 15 | 27 | 37 |
| 85% | 17 | 29 | 40 |
| 90% | 20 | 33 | 44 |
| 95% | 25 | 38 | 49 |
And a 60-card deck checking a turn-3 cast on the play:
| Bar | One pip | Two pips | Three pips |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 10 | 18 | 25 |
| 85% | 11 | 19 | 27 |
| 90% | 13 | 22 | 29 |
| 95% | 16 | 25 | 32 |
Lowering the bar to 80% takes a Commander single pip on turn 4 from 20 sources to 15, at the price of a late color in one game in five instead of one in ten. Raising it to 95% asks for 25. The calculator below takes any bar from 50% to 99%.
Reading the chart honestly
- Count each color on its own. A dual land counts once for each color it makes, which is why multicolor decks run them; the two-color and three-color guides split a land count between colors.
- A spell with two colors in its cost checks each color separately. Both have to arrive, so the real odds of casting it are a little below the weaker color's figure.
- A rock or dork counts only for turns after it is reliably out, and only for the colors it makes. Ramp and your land count covers when a rock honestly counts.
- A land that enters tapped is a source for every turn after the one it was played on, not for that one.
Run your own numbers
The calculator opens on the chart's first Commander answer: a single pip on turn 3 with 22 sources, on the play. Change the deck size, pips, turn and bar to check a case the charts skip, or enter the sources your deck actually runs to see its odds. If the list is already built, the deck mana audit runs every colored spell in it at once.
What the chart leaves out
Every figure counts the opening seven exactly as dealt, then one card a turn. Mulligans lift the real odds above these, since a hand with no source of a color is one players send back, and so does card draw. Tables that assume a mulligan strategy print lower source counts for the same bar, so treat each number here as the floor a careful keep improves on.
FAQ
How many sources of each color does a 60-card deck need?
At 90% on the play, a single pip wants 15 sources by turn 2, 13 by turn 3 and 12 by turn 4. A double pip wants 24, 22 and 20, and a triple pip 32, 29 and 26. On the draw, each figure is the next turn's.
Why do Commander source counts drop in a multiplayer game?
Because nobody skips their first draw. In a two-player game the player who goes first skips it, so the on-the-play figures belong to that seat. In a pod of three or more players every seat draws on its first turn and has seen one extra card by every turn, which takes a turn-3 single pip from 22 sources to 20 and a turn-3 double pip from 36 to 33.
How many sources for a turn-2 spell in Commander?
At 90%, a single pip on turn 2 wants 24 sources of its color on the play and 22 in a pod. A double pip on turn 2 wants 40 and 36, which no two-color deck can give one color, so a two-drop with two pips is a card you plan to cast on turn 3 or later.
How much does an 80% bar save over 90%?
In a 99-card deck on the play, a turn-4 single pip falls from 20 sources to 15 and a double pip from 33 to 27. The price is one game in five without the color on time instead of one in ten.
How many colored sources does a 40-card Limited deck need?
At 90% on the play, 9 sources for a single pip by turn 3 and 8 by turn 4, and 14 and 13 for a double pip. A 17-land deck split 9 and 8 meets the single-pip bar in both colors by turn 4, and a double pip in neither.