What are the odds of hitting your land drops?
Short answer: with 37 lands in a 99-card Commander deck you have hit every land drop through turn 3 in 72.7% of games on the play, and through turn 4 in 55.5%. In a multiplayer pod nobody skips their first draw, so every seat sees one more card and those become 80.0% and 64.9%. A 60-card deck with 24 lands hits them 78.9% and 63.2% of the time on the play, and a 40-card Limited deck with 17 lands 84.5% and 70.7%.
Every figure on this page is an exact hypergeometric probability from the same engine as our mana base calculator, which you can run yourself at the bottom of the page. A land drop is on time when you have drawn at least as many lands as the turn number: four lands among the cards you have seen by your fourth turn means you could have played one every turn. On the play you have seen 7 cards plus one draw per turn after the first, so 10 cards by turn 4, and 11 on the draw.
Commander: land drop odds by land count
99 cards, on the play
The player who goes first in a two-player game, the only Commander seat that skips a draw. Chance of having hit every land drop through each turn:
| Lands | Turn 2 | Turn 3 | Turn 4 | Turn 5 | Turn 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 81.6% | 63.2% | 44.1% | 28.0% | 16.3% |
| 34 | 83.2% | 65.7% | 47.0% | 30.7% | 18.4% |
| 35 | 84.7% | 68.1% | 49.8% | 33.4% | 20.7% |
| 36 | 86.1% | 70.4% | 52.7% | 36.2% | 23.1% |
| 37 | 87.4% | 72.7% | 55.5% | 39.1% | 25.6% |
| 38 | 88.6% | 74.8% | 58.3% | 42.0% | 28.2% |
| 39 | 89.7% | 76.8% | 61.0% | 45.0% | 30.9% |
| 40 | 90.7% | 78.8% | 63.6% | 47.9% | 33.7% |
99 cards, in a pod (on the draw)
Every seat in a game of three or more players, including whoever goes first:
| Lands | Turn 2 | Turn 3 | Turn 4 | Turn 5 | Turn 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 86.9% | 71.3% | 53.3% | 36.3% | 22.7% |
| 34 | 88.2% | 73.7% | 56.3% | 39.4% | 25.4% |
| 35 | 89.5% | 75.9% | 59.2% | 42.5% | 28.2% |
| 36 | 90.6% | 78.0% | 62.1% | 45.6% | 31.1% |
| 37 | 91.6% | 80.0% | 64.9% | 48.8% | 34.1% |
| 38 | 92.5% | 81.9% | 67.6% | 51.9% | 37.2% |
| 39 | 93.4% | 83.6% | 70.2% | 55.0% | 40.3% |
| 40 | 94.2% | 85.3% | 72.6% | 58.0% | 43.5% |
Read it down a column and a land is worth about two to three points of on-time odds in the turns that matter. Going from 37 to 38 lands takes the fourth land drop in a pod from 64.9% to 67.6%, and cutting to 35 drops it to 59.2%. Read it along a row and the odds fall away fast: at 37 lands the sixth land is on time in 34.1% of pod games, which is why Commander decks reach the top of their curve with ramp and card draw rather than lands alone.
Why a pod plays the draw column
In a two-player game the player who goes first skips the draw on their first turn. In a multiplayer game no player does, so in a four-player pod every seat, first player included, has seen one extra card by every turn. That card is worth the gap between the two tables: at 37 lands, 55.5% of games have the fourth land on time on the play and 64.9% in a pod.
Our other mana guides quote the on-the-play figure for Commander. It is the two-player case and the cautious one, so a mana base built to it holds up at every seat. If you only ever play in pods, you can read every Commander number on this site one card richer, and the colored sources chart prints both.
How many lands would it take?
Turn the question around and ask for the land count that hits a given land drop on time. In a 99-card deck, on the play and in a pod:
| On time in | Turn 2 | Turn 3 | Turn 4 | Turn 5 | Turn 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50%, play | 20 | 29 | 36 | 41 | 46 |
| 50%, pod | 18 | 26 | 32 | 38 | 43 |
| 75%, play | 30 | 39 | 45 | 51 | 55 |
| 75%, pod | 27 | 35 | 42 | 47 | 51 |
| 90%, play | 40 | 48 | 54 | 59 | 63 |
| 90%, pod | 36 | 44 | 50 | 55 | 59 |
The bottom rows are the point. Hitting your fourth land drop on time in 90% of games would take 54 lands on the play and 50 in a pod, more than half the deck. A 37-land deck is close to the half-way deck instead: 36 lands is the fewest that hit the fourth drop on time in half of all games on the play, and 32 in a pod.
No working deck sets its land count by this table, and it would be wrong to. Every land past the 37th is a card that does nothing once your mana is in place, and the games you lose to flood are as real as the ones you lose to a stalled third land. Decks close the gap with cheap ramp and card draw, which see more cards and put lands onto the battlefield. How far that lets you shave is its own question, answered with the same math in ramp and your land count, and the land count itself is argued in how many lands should I run?
60-card and 40-card decks
Two-player formats are where going first matters, so each land count gets a row on the play and a row on the draw. A 60-card deck:
| Lands | Turn 2 | Turn 3 | Turn 4 | Turn 5 | Turn 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22, play | 87.2% | 71.9% | 53.9% | 36.7% | 22.9% |
| 22, draw | 91.6% | 79.6% | 63.7% | 46.6% | 31.3% |
| 24, play | 91.0% | 78.9% | 63.2% | 46.7% | 31.9% |
| 24, draw | 94.5% | 85.6% | 72.6% | 57.3% | 42.0% |
| 26, play | 93.8% | 84.6% | 71.6% | 56.7% | 42.0% |
| 26, draw | 96.5% | 90.2% | 80.2% | 67.2% | 53.0% |
And a 40-card Limited deck:
| Lands | Turn 2 | Turn 3 | Turn 4 | Turn 5 | Turn 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16, play | 91.8% | 80.0% | 64.0% | 46.7% | 30.9% |
| 16, draw | 95.2% | 86.9% | 73.9% | 58.0% | 41.5% |
| 17, play | 93.9% | 84.5% | 70.7% | 54.6% | 38.8% |
| 17, draw | 96.7% | 90.4% | 79.9% | 65.9% | 50.4% |
| 18, play | 95.6% | 88.2% | 76.7% | 62.3% | 47.1% |
| 18, draw | 97.7% | 93.1% | 84.9% | 73.2% | 59.2% |
The 17-land default hits the third land drop on time in 84.5% of games on the play and 90.4% on the draw, the best on-time odds of any format here, because 17 of 40 is a larger share of the deck than 37 of 99 or 24 of 60.
Your opening seven
Every land drop starts with the opening hand. How many lands a seven-card hand holds:
| Lands in deck | No land | One land | Two to four | Five or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 of 99 | 5.2% | 20.1% | 70.7% | 3.9% |
| 35 of 99 | 4.2% | 17.6% | 73.1% | 5.1% |
| 37 of 99 | 3.3% | 15.3% | 74.8% | 6.6% |
| 39 of 99 | 2.6% | 13.1% | 76.0% | 8.3% |
| 24 of 60 | 2.2% | 12.1% | 77.5% | 8.3% |
| 17 of 40 | 1.3% | 9.2% | 79.5% | 10.0% |
At 37 lands, 18.6% of opening hands hold one land or none, the hands most players send back, and 74.8% hold two to four. In a multiplayer game the first mulligan is free, so the hands a player keeps do better than these raw figures, and better than every table above, which counts the opening seven exactly as dealt.
Check your own deck
The calculator opens on a 37-land Commander deck checking its fourth land drop in a pod. Set your own land count, the land drop you care about and the turn you want it by. Count every land, including modal double-faced cards you would play as lands, and leave out mana rocks, which are spells cast off lands rather than land drops.
What these odds leave out
The math counts the cards you draw and nothing else. Mulligans lift the real odds above these, since a player sends back the hands that would have missed. So do cantrips, cycling and card draw, which see extra cards, and land ramp like Cultivate, which puts lands onto the battlefield without a land drop. Treat every figure here as the floor a deck stands on before any of that, which is also how our other tools treat their numbers.
FAQ
What are the odds of hitting your land drops with 37 lands?
In a 99-card deck with 37 lands you have hit every land drop through turn 2 in 87.4% of games on the play, through turn 3 in 72.7% and through turn 4 in 55.5%. In a multiplayer pod, where nobody skips the first draw, those become 91.6%, 80.0% and 64.9%.
How often do you miss your third land drop in Commander?
At 37 lands, in 27.3% of games on the play and 20.0% in a multiplayer pod: by your third turn you have not drawn three lands. Cutting to 35 lands raises the pod figure to 24.1%, and a 38th land lowers it to 18.1%.
Does going first change your land drop odds in Commander?
Only in a two-player game, where the player who goes first skips their first draw and has seen one card fewer by every turn. In a game of three or more players nobody skips that draw, so every seat gets the on-the-draw odds: at 37 lands, the fourth land drop on time in 64.9% of games instead of 55.5%.
How many lands would it take to hit every land drop?
More than any deck runs. Hitting the fourth land drop on time in 90% of games takes 54 lands of 99 on the play and 50 in a pod, and the sixth takes 63 and 59. A 37-land deck hits its fourth land on time in a little over half of games on the play and nearly two in three in a pod, and ramp and card draw carry the games where it does not.
What are the odds of an opening hand with no lands?
With 37 lands in 99 cards, 3.3% of seven-card hands hold no land and 15.3% hold exactly one. With 24 lands in a 60-card deck it is 2.2% and 12.1%, and with 17 lands in a 40-card deck, 1.3% and 9.2%.